Polls are not crystal balls. They are snapshots. Here is how to tell the difference between a useful poll, a noisy one, and a misleading interpretation.
The sheep are wise beyond their wool. I work for months, three years out of every four (because Virginia holds its elections every four years, the year AFTER the national Presidential elections) pouring over, scrutinizing, looking for markers that might be a fluke — or might be the first sign of a groundswell. I don’t eat, sleep, or have anything like a normal conversation. (Because we were living in The Hague in the autumn of 2012, around 1 November, my endlessly patient husband threw me in the car and drove to Heidelberg, saying “it’s all I can do for Obama: wurst, massive tankards of excellent beer and a river you can storm beside, berating it instead of me.”) I handle polls from all over the U.S., polls with lousy methodology, polls with excellent methodology and everything in between. The points the sheep raise are precisely those voters should ask before taking any poll’s results seriously, regardless of how the results make them feel. I hope the sheep can persuade as many voters as possible that even the best, most bias free poll is a still only a snapshot of a fraction of the electorate at moment in time. Look at enough high quality snapshots from a broad enough range of time and (I hope) a person can make some useful observations. But there will always be an element that makes it like providing live commentary on the Kentucky Derby while looking at a set of still snapshots.
Great guide. Thanx.
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The sheep are wise beyond their wool. I work for months, three years out of every four (because Virginia holds its elections every four years, the year AFTER the national Presidential elections) pouring over, scrutinizing, looking for markers that might be a fluke — or might be the first sign of a groundswell. I don’t eat, sleep, or have anything like a normal conversation. (Because we were living in The Hague in the autumn of 2012, around 1 November, my endlessly patient husband threw me in the car and drove to Heidelberg, saying “it’s all I can do for Obama: wurst, massive tankards of excellent beer and a river you can storm beside, berating it instead of me.”) I handle polls from all over the U.S., polls with lousy methodology, polls with excellent methodology and everything in between. The points the sheep raise are precisely those voters should ask before taking any poll’s results seriously, regardless of how the results make them feel. I hope the sheep can persuade as many voters as possible that even the best, most bias free poll is a still only a snapshot of a fraction of the electorate at moment in time. Look at enough high quality snapshots from a broad enough range of time and (I hope) a person can make some useful observations. But there will always be an element that makes it like providing live commentary on the Kentucky Derby while looking at a set of still snapshots.
Appreciate the insights! And thanks for subscribing!
Thank you Sheep for the info on polling! It is moment by moment especially when epsteins name comes up!
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